SEMINARIOS Y WORKSHOPS

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al seminario de investigación de 

"Airbnb, Urban Crime, and Neighborhood Change: Evidence from Medellín"

Héctor Mauricio Posada (Universidad de Antioquia).

jueves 21 de mayo, 9:00 am- Presencial

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Abstract:

Airbnb’s expansion has reconfigured Medellín’s urban tourism by moving visitors into residential neighborhoods and intensifying the use of housing as a short-term rental asset. This process may affect crime by increasing target availability, weakening informal social control, and interacting with pre-existing forms of local insecurity. This paper studies the effect of Airbnb growth on crime in Medellín over 2014–2022. Using geocoded Airbnb and police data, we estimate staggered difference-in-differences models that exploit the uneven timing and location of sustained Airbnb expansion across city areas. The results show that persistent increases in Airbnb activity raise robberies against individuals and, more modestly, residential burglary. We also find declines in coexistence-related reports, child-protection reports, and merchandise seizures, consistent with weakening reporting and enforcement in treated areas. Neighborhood-level estimates further show lower perceived conflict, higher perceived armed-group presence, and lower average household income. Taken together, these findings indicate that Airbnb expansion strengthened demand for housing as a tourism asset while eroding neighborhood conditions associated with residential stability, providing a plausible explanation for the divergence between rising property values in levels and weaker relative appreciation in treated areas

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de

"An Interactive Dashboard for Time Series Forecasting using Colombian Data"

Sergio Andrés Rojas  (Universidad del Rosario)  

Jueves 26 de febrero, 9:00 am

PRESENCIAL

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Abstract:

This presentation demonstrates an interactive R Shiny dashboard for economic time-series forecasting. The application integrates classical statistical models, multivariate approaches, and machine learning techniques within a unified framework that allows real-time data transformation, model evaluation, and forecast combination. The session is practice-oriented, focusing on live model execution, performance metrics, and ensemble forecasting for applied economic and financial analysis.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de

"Broadband Quality Labels"

Renzo Clavijo  (EAFIT)  

Jueves 5 de marzo, 9:00 am

PRESENCIAL

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Abstract:

We analyze the implications of providing information to consumers about Internet access quality. We use plan level data for fixed Internet access to identify whether a new quality label is welfare improving. Preliminary evidence shows that the label is welfare improving. From one side, consumers are willing to pay for better quality service, and from the other, firms are able to charge consumers to provide higher quality Internet access.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de

"Peace Rules! The Impact of a Rule-Based International Order on Peace"

Francisco Eslava  (Geneva Graduate Institute)  

Jueves 12 de marzo, 9:00 am

VIRTUAL

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Abstract:

Multilateral governance is currently under severe pressure, which some see as reason for alarm and others as ground for rejoicing. To investigate conflicting claims on the causal impact of the multilateral architecture on peace, we have assembled a novel global dataset covering the years 1850-2014. We draw on exogenous variation in the heterogeneous impact of global shifts in the frequency of international treaties, following an instrumental variables approach. It is found that exogenous surges in multilateralism fosters peace in asymmetric dyads, protecting small countries from wars with greater powers. Using large language models we are able to investigate the mechanisms at work and key peace-promoting ingredients of international treaties.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de 

"A theory of identity fragmentation "

Tomás Rodríguez Barraquer (Universidad de Los Andes) 

Jueves 29 de enero, 9:00 am

PRESENCIAL

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Abstract:

The communications revolution of the late 1990s–2020s expanded the ability of middle-sized coalitions to overcome collective-action problems, increasing their relative value. This shift has two opposing implications for large coalitions: it can destabilize them by making defections easier, yet it can also foster new middle-sized groups that serve as stepping-stones toward larger alliances. Building on the dynamic network formation framework of Jackson and Watts (2002), we introduce a model of coalition formation with persistent shocks to the value of middle-sized coalitions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for when large-coalition structures remain stable in the long run and when they erode. The analysis explains why many democracies have experienced rising political fragmentation after the communications revolution.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de 

"Sovereign Risk with Endogenous Debt Limits"

Fernando Arce (BID) 

Jueves 12 de febrero, 9:00 am

PRESENCIAL

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Abstract:

Why do countries set sovereign debt ceilings if they keep raising them? This paper shows that debt ceilings can serve as intermediate commitment devices that reduce expected dilution, thereby lowering spreads—and their volatility—even without reducing total borrowing. We propose a new sovereign default model with long-term debt in which each government inherits a previously announced ceiling but may revise it by paying a political or institutional deviation cost. This friction generates a state-dependent form of partial commitment. The ceiling mitigates debt dilution at the expense of fiscal flexibility, leading the government to voluntarily adopt a ceiling that limits the discretion of its future selves. Governments choose rules that are costly—but not impossible—to adjust, trading off lower spreads and volatility through reduced dilution against the option value of fiscal flexibility in bad times. Consistent with this mechanism, we show that emerging-market countries operating under fiscal rules exhibit lower sovereign spreads and lower spread volatility, even though breaches and revisions occur.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de 

"Procesos de Kac–Ornstein–Uhlenbeck con saltos afines y sus aplicaciones en modelación de tasas de interés"

Oscar López (Universidad Nacional de Colombia) 

Jueves 19 de febrero, 9:00 am

PRESENCIAL

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Abstract:

En esta charla se presenta un marco de modelación para tasas de interés basado en procesos de Kac–Ornstein–Uhlenbeck con saltos afines, que extienden los modelos clásicos tipo Ornstein–Uhlenbeck al incorporar dinámicas con variación acotada, cambios de régimen tipo telegráfico y saltos sincronizados con dichos cambios. A diferencia de los enfoques difusivos tradicionales, esta formulación permite capturar comportamientos persistentes y no gaussianos en la evolución de variables económicas y financieras, con una interpretación económica natural. Sobre esta base, se construyen martingalas explícitas asociadas a estos procesos y se derivan aproximaciones analíticas para el precio de bonos cupón cero bajo la hipótesis de expectativas insesgadas. Finalmente, se discuten las implicaciones del modelo para la estructura temporal de tasas de interés y se presentan ejemplos numéricos que ilustran su flexibilidad y desempeño.

 La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación de 

"Relaciones entre la Corrupción Política y el Desempeño Fiscal Subregional: un enfoque de regresión Cuantil para Colombia a nivel municipal"

Guillermo David Hincapie (Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana - Medellin)

Jueves 23 de octubre, 9:00 am

Virtual

Abstract:

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar y caracterizar la relación existente entre la corrupción política y el desempeño fiscal a nivel municipal en Colombia durante el período 2016-2019. Para ello, se desarrolla un indicador compuesto de corrupción y se emplea una metodología de regresión intercuartílica con variable instrumental. Los resultados empíricos obtenidos indican que la corrupción pública se asocia con una reducción en el desempeño fiscal, presentando efectos diferenciados a lo largo de los diferentes cuartiles de la distribución, siendo particularmente más pronunciada en municipios con bajo nivel de desarrollo económico. A partir de una propuesta teórica que busca explicar cómo la probabilidad de captura de un político corrupto está condicionada por el impacto de la corrupción sobre el desempeño fiscal, se plantea la hipótesis de que, en escenarios de control institucional, el desempeño fiscal resulta inelástico frente a la corrupción política. Las estimaciones realizadas brindan evidencia empírica que respalda esta hipótesis, al calcular la elasticidad correspondiente. Esta investigación contribuye a la literatura en el campo al proporcionar información para el diseño de políticas públicas orientadas al control y la mitigación de este fenómeno, especialmente en contextos de tratamiento diferenciado.